market commentary

The employment outlook is improving, with data issued last week showing another strong monthly jobs increase. In all, the nation added 228,000 positions last month, which suggested that much of the nation had recovered from the devastating effects of last summer’s hurricanes.

The economy’s forward momentum remains in place as we approach yearend, with worker productivity (the highest in three years), trends in retailing (including vehicle sales, which were helped by Black Friday deals and strong consumer confidence), and activity in major industrial categories (particularly manufacturing) all pointing to further moderate gross domestic product

The outlook is brightening as we hit the home stretch of 2017, with the nation quickly regrouping following the succession of deadly hurricanes that struck early in the second half.

The U.S. economy is in a comfort zone as the old year winds down, with recent reports showing further gains in retail sales, largely favorable trends in machine tool orders, and high levels of consumer sentiment.

Investors have had a lot to ponder in recent weeks.

The economy’s resilience is on display. To wit, after a formidable recovery in the second quarter (following a listless first three months), the long up cycle showed its mettle in the July-to-September span.

The headline numbers paint a mixed picture. To wit, we’re seeing reports affirming a solid recovery in orders for durable goods, a nice comeback in retail sales, and a reassuring outlook from the Federal Reserve (the Beige Book).

The consumer is back in the game, after a spring and early summer that saw the public exercise a considerable degree of restraint. In September, though, Americans flocked to the nation’s car dealers, clothing and accessories stores, furniture outlets, purveyors of food, beverage, and health care products, and the Internet.

The headlines tell only part of the employment story. To wit, the economy lost 33,000 jobs last month—the first monthly decline in seven years. On the face of it, that would portend an ill wind blowing in for investors.

The second-half economy may not be as strong as we had expected. To wit, after a reassuring 3.0% rise in GDP in the April-to-June period and encouraging early third-quarter metrics, the nation had seemed positioned for a similarly impressive final six months.